In science, progress is possible. In fact, if one believes in Bayes' theorem, scientific progress is inevitable as predictions are made and as beliefs are tested and refined. ~ Nate Silver If the ...

This article was published in Scientific American’s former blog network and reflects the views of the author, not necessarily those of Scientific American I’m not sure when I first heard of Bayes’ ...

Over the years, many writers have implied that statistics can provide almost any result that is convenient at the time. Of course, honest practitioners use statistics in an attempt to quantify the ...

Mike Lee receives relevant research funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australia-Pacific Science Foundation, and Flinders University. Benedict King receives funding from the Australian ...

A new model shows that a range of visual illusions in humans can be explained as rational inferences about the odds that a motion stimulus on the retina results from a particular real-world source.