This really tells the whole story, doesn’t it? Depending on which sources you went with, the New Orleans Saints had a win probability of something between 97% and 98% late in Monday night’s game with ...

Whew. Let’s all take a deep breath. Sunday’s season opener between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons was a roller coaster ride from start to finish, peaking in the fourth quarter with a ...

For any event that has multiple outcomes with different probabilities, it can be helpful and illustrative to construct a chart or diagram of the possible outcomes. Tree diagrams are a useful example ...

The Titans' chances of pulling off a stunning upset against the Dolphins seemed dead in the water after a couple of key fourth-quarter turnovers. The first came when Eric Garror inexplicably muffed a ...

If we convert this spread into a probability of recession twelve months ahead using the probit model described earlier (estimated with Treasury data from January 1959 to December 2005), we can match ...

We here at For The Win love win probability charts, which sometime tell the story of a game in one graphic, from the Chiefs-Bills chart in 2022 to the Niners' Super Bowl collapse against Kansas City.