Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to ...

Discover how emotional biases impact stock market crash estimates. See why expert analysis suggests lower risk and learn how to refine your own forecasts.

Unbiased estimates of population parameters can be obtained from a sample survey when the sample units are not the primary units of estimation, i.e., when the correspondence between the units selected ...

New research uncovers why an increase in probability feels riskier than a decrease. The research falls under the realm of subjective probability, also known as likelihood or risk. While past research ...

A key issue for risk management is to decide the relevant horizon associated with risk measurement. Many different horizons may be relevant, from short (for example, daily) to long (for example, ...

Statisticians who study coincidences are fond of saying that ordinary people don’t know how to estimate the probabilities of coincidences. To illustrate our poor statistical thinking, statisticians ...

In the most detailed investigation ever made of earthquake hazards throughout the Bay Area, scientists warned Monday that at least one severely damaging and deadly quake is very likely here within ...