Discover how emotional biases impact stock market crash estimates. See why expert analysis suggests lower risk and learn how to refine your own forecasts.

The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Some economists are predicting that US recession risk is rising, and a downturn could arrive before the year is out, but the supporting data to date is still thin. If the central bank does ease ...

Probability theory is indispensable in computer science: It is at the core of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which require decision making under uncertainty. It is integral to CS theory ...

Smarter people don’t just crunch numbers better—they actually see the future more clearly. Examining thousands of over-50s, Bath researchers found the brightest minds made life-expectancy forecasts ...

An international team is currently closely tracking the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4. The impact probability estimates for the year 2032 has been reduced from a peak of 3 percent to below 0.001 ...

Maggie Lieu has received funding from STFC. In December 2024, astronomers in Chile spotted a new asteroid streaking through the sky, which they named 2024 YR4. What’s significant about this 100m-wide ...

During the Super Bowl, every decision matters. With millions of fans watching, the game often comes down to a single play call. And no call is more scrutinized than what a coach decides to do on ...

ABSTRACT: This methodological article aims to present the type I Pareto distribution in a clear and illustrative manner for better understanding among social researchers. It also provides R scripts ...